Tonight's game matches up two pretty good teams, the NY Giants against the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams are 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS this season. Both teams are solid playoff contenders. The biggest advantage the Cowboys have tonight is that they're playing at home and on national television.
You can never discount the psychological component of a sporting event, and with both teams evenly matched, the extra adrenalin of playing at home might be enough to give the Cowboys the edge. At least that's what the oddsmakers think. That's the only reason the Cowboys are 3-point favorites at home. What do the stats say? The first stat that stands out is that the Giants are 8-4 SU in their last twelve games against Dallas. This has a lot to do with how the Giants match-up, and also because the Giants have had better teams in the past. On the other hand, the Cowboys are 11-4 SU in their last 11 HOME games against the Giants.
This tells me that the Giants don't travel well to Texas. But the entire key to this game isn't past history -after all the players don't give a #$$@! about what happened 7 years ago, do they? The key to this game is whether or not the Dallas defense can stop Tiki Barber. I say they can. The Dallas defense has only given up 67 yards per game rushing this season. And it's not like they've sacrificed their pass defense to keep the running game in check.
The Cowboys have also only given up 212 yards per game passing. What else do the stats tell me? How about this. The Giants are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in Dallas.
That shows that the public might have a tendency to underestimate the home field advantage that Dallas carries into tonight's game. Going back a full ten-years, the Giants only covered in Dallas 6 times in 20 games. So what's the final call tonight? My gut feeling is to simply lay off this game. If you must play this game, play it for less than you nornally would. I can't honestly tell you there's a big edge in this game on either side. If the Giants can run the ball, they'll probably win outright.
If the Cowboys stop Barber, they'll probably win outright. Sometimes the difference between coming out ahead in the long run is knowing when to simply lay low and wait for a more high percentage game. That said. If you have to make a play go with the Cowboys at home, 24-20.
It seems like more often than not in big games within the division, the Cowboys find a way to get it done at home.
David James is one of the world's foremost sports handicappers. Not only does James have an uncanny knack for knowing who to bet on, but he also is one of the best at providing in depth explanations and statistics showing exactly why each pick meets his criteria. Click on this link if you would like to learn how to be successful at Sports Betting
